Quantcast
The MFWire
Manage Email Alerts | Sponsorships | About MFWire | Who We Are

Subscribe to MFWire.com's News Alerts [click]

Rating:Guns, Germs and Grantham Not Rated 0.0 Email Routing List Email & Route  Print Print
Monday, May 5, 2014

Guns, Germs and Grantham

Reported by Anastasia Donde

Jeremy Grantham has done it again.

He's vented about his doom and gloom predictions on future market conditions and returns via his latest quarterly letter. And while the GMO chief believes that the upswing in stocks still has a ways to go, he also thinks it will inevitably lead to a bubble in a year or two.

"It could be derailed by disappointing global growth, profits sagging as deficits are cut, a Russian miscalculation, or, perhaps most dangerous and likely, an extreme Chinese slowdown. But I believe it probably will not end for at least a year or two and probably not before it reaches a level in excess of 2,250 on the S&P 500," he wrote. But eventually, "I'm sure it's going to end badly."

But, we're used to this tune when it comes to Grantham. He has negative views on the markets most of the time. Granted, sometimes he's right, like in 2007, when he predicted the housing bubble. But other times he's wrong, for instance when he vented at the end of 2012 that the following year was going to be a very "dangerous year" for stocks and said that investors should steer clear of U.S. equities and go for international or emerging market ones instead, when in the end, the S&P 500 rose by 30 percent and emerging market regions and countries fell by 7 to 20 percent.

All in all, his firm's "reversion to the mean" philosophy might remind you of Jared Diamond's fears that all civilizations are eventually doomed to fail. And, hey, maybe they're both right, but in the meantime, we can't help but try to build utopias and make money. So what we really want to know is, how is Grantham going to get his returns at GMO? Or is he just going to hide all the cash, and himself, under a mattress? Somehow, we doubt that.

So far, it looks like pessimism pays off in some of GMO's strategies. The GMO Global Focused Equity Fund (GGFEX), for example, returned 29.86 percent for the one year ending March 31. 

Stay ahead of the news ... Sign up for our email alerts now
CLICK HERE

0.0
 Do You Recommend This Story?



GO TO: MFWire
Return to Top
 News Archives
2024: Q2Q1
2023: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2022: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2021: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2020: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2019: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2018: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2017: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2016: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2015: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2014: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2013: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2012: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2011: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2010: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2009: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2008: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2007: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2006: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2005: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2004: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2003: Q4Q3Q2Q1
2002: Q4Q3Q2Q1
 Subscribe via RSS:
Raw XML
Add to My Yahoo!
follow us in feedly


  1. WE Boston - Women's Initiative Joint Spring Networking Reception, May 15
  2. MFDF In Focus: Making Sense of ESG - A Morningstar Guide, May 16
  3. SEC IM 2024 Conference on Emerging Trends in Asset Management, May 16
  4. ALFI Roadshow to the USA, May 16
  5. 2024 ICI Leadership Summit, May 21-23
  6. MFDF webinar - Mutual Fund Director Compensation: the MPI Annual Survey (2024), May 21
  7. Schwab Institutional Investor Day, May 22
  8. MFDF Conference of Fund Leaders Forum, June 5
  9. MFDF in-person outreach: Continuing Regulatory Impacts on Fund Boards, June 11
  10. MFDF webinar - Digital Assets in the Fund Space (Part 1 of 2), June 12
  11. 2024 MMI Leadership Pathway Seminar, Jun 12-14
  12. 2024 Nicsa Fearless Leadership Symposium, June 12
  13. MFDF webinar - Lessons Learned from the Regional Bank Volatility and the Impact on Registered Funds, June 18
  14. MFDF Director Discussion Series - Open Forum (Philadelphia), June 20
  15. New York YPEM Cornhole Classic, June 25
  16. Morningstar Investment Conference Conference 2024, Jun 26-27
  17. MFDF webinar - Mid-Year Tax Update for Registered Investment Companies, July 16
  18. MFDF Director Discussion Series - Open Forum via Zoom, July 17
  19. MFDF Director Discussion Series - Open Forum (New York), July 23
  20. 2024 MMI Annual Conference, Oct 15-17
  21. 5th Annual ETFGI Global ETFs Insight Summit, October 29
  22. MFDF webinar - Digital Assets in the Fund Space (part 2 of 2), November 7
  23. MFDF 2025 Directors' Institute, January 27 - 29, 2025
  24. MFDF 2025 Fund Governance & Regulatory Insights Conference, March 6 - 7, 2025




©All rights reserved to InvestmentWires, Inc. 1997-2024
14 Wall Street | 20th Floor | New York, NY 10005 | P: 212-331-8968 | F: 212-331-8998
Privacy Policy :: Terms of Use