Worldwide asset management might see an 18 percent rise in revenue over the next couple of years, or a 29 percent drop. That's one expectation highlighted
in "Winning Under Pressure," a 46-page report from Morgan Stanley
and Oliver Wyman
on the global future of asset managers and wholesale banks.
the recent report, which was penned by a host of authors, including: equity analyst Betsy Graseck
, equity analyst Michael Cyprys
, equity analyst Manan Gosalia
, and research associate Ryan Kenny
, among others, at Morgan Stanley; and partner Mariya Rosberg
and financial services consultant Julian Gorski
, among others, at Oliver Wyman.
In a ten-page section on asset management, the report's authors offer a host of predictions and concerns for asset management's future. At a broad level, the researchers offer three possible future paths for asset management's path from 2017 (the data on which the report is based) through the end of 2020: 1) the bull case that includes predictions of a 22-percent rise in asset management AUM, a four-percent drop in average fee levels (due both to fee changes and to product mix shifts), and an 18-percent rise in industry revenue; 2) a base case that includes predictions of a ten-percent rise in AUM, a 13-percent drop in average fee levels, and a three-percent drop in revenue; and 3) a bear case that includes predictions of a 13-percent drop in AUM, a 16-percent drop in average fee levels, and a 29-percent drop in revenue.
Oh, and if there's a bear market (a looming specter given the recent market volatility), the authors predict that it will take the industry longer to recover than in the past, given "the current environment of increased regulatory scrutiny and a growing demand for value-for-money."
Neil Anderson, Managing Editor
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