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Friday, June 4, 2021

$150T By 2030?

Reported by Neil Anderson, Managing Editor

A longtime mutual fund industry researcher is offering a new optimistic projection about the industry's future growth: "$150 trillion by 2030?"

Avi Nachmany
Avi Nachmany, an independent consultant and board member who co-founded Strategic Insight, posted that new projection as an update to one he made more than a decade ago: that the global mutual fund industry would reach $100 trillion in AUM by 2030 (up from less than $500 billion when Strategic Insight launched in 1986).

"More investors around the world are trusting their retirement savings (and other investments) to mutual funds," Nachmany writes.

In terms of where the industry stands now, Nachmany points to the new 2021 Investment Company Fact Book from the Investment Company Institute (ICI). The ICI folks report that, as of the end of 2020, "total worldwide assets invested in regulated open-end funds" stood at $63.1 trillion, with $29.3 trillion of that in the U.S. alone.

So, for Nachmany's prediction to hold true, the mutual fund industry's worldwide AUM CAGR in the coming years would have to average 9.05 percent (to reach $150 trillion by the end of 2030) or 10.1 percent (to reach $150 trillion by the beginning of 2030). (By comparison, in 2020, the industry grew by 14.94%, after growing by 17.56% in 2019.) 

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